July Housing Market Update With Rate Shifts And Much More

Welcome to your Market Update for the 
week of July 12th with Angie Gerber and Nikki 
Erickson from Kevnik Mortgage!

This week we have some really interesting data 
to break down — and a mid-year reality check 
that every agent needs to hear right now.

This week we are covering:
✅ CPI numbers just came in — inflation is 
   lower than predicted and here is what 
   that means for mortgage rates
✅ Interest rate update — mid sixes with 
   room to move lower with buy downs
✅ Home sales data — listings are being 
   priced 2 to 2.5% lower than last year 
   but actual sale prices are up 1.2%
✅ What that seemingly conflicting data 
   actually means for your buyers and 
   sellers right now
✅ Minnesota vs Arizona vs Florida — 
   a fascinating comparison of three 
   very different markets
✅ Why Minnesota is actually outpacing 
   Arizona in days on market right now — 
   something almost never seen
✅ A mid-year goal check in — where are 
   you vs where you intended to be in 
   January?
✅ Why Q4 is not slow and how doubling 
   down now will change everything

We are halfway through the year. Now is 
the time to look at your goals revisit 
your pipeline and decide whether you are 
going to coast or sprint to the finish.

If you need help with your goals or your 
strategy for the second half of the year 
reach out to Angie directly — she is here 
and happy to help.

Need a Great Real Estate Coach and Mentor....
 🔗 Book your FREE Discovery Call with Angie: https://calendly.com/angiegerber/real-estate-business-builder

📞 Connect with Nikki Erickson at Kevnik Mortgage:
📱 Call or Text: 952-484-1584
📧 Email: nikki@kevnikgroup.com
📘 Facebook | TikTok | Instagram: 
   @mortgagesfrommntoaz
🔗 Request Nikki's Renovation Loan PDF: 
   nikki@kevnikgroup.com

00:00 Introduction – Market Update Week of July 14th
00:30 CPI Numbers Are In – Inflation Lower Than Expected
01:30 Interest Rates Update – Mid Sixes With Room to Go Lower
02:30 Home Sales Data – Listings Down 2.5% But Sale Prices Up 1.2%
04:00 Minnesota vs Arizona vs Florida – A Tale of Three Markets
05:30 Minnesota Is Outpacing Arizona Right Now – Here Is Why
06:30 Mid-Year Goal Check In – Where Are You vs January?
07:00 How to Reach Nikki Erickson at Kevnik Mortgage

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:36

Welcome to your weekly market update. It's the week of July 12th. Nikki, how's it going?

SPEAKER_00 0:43

Things are going pretty okay. So we got some uh CPI numbers yesterday that were um indicative of inflation lowering more than what was predicted. Uh when this happens, it's actually helped mortgage interest rates bounce back from the prior uptick due to the strait of hormones being closed again. So we've kind of had some volatility in the market surrounding the RAN situation and surrounding inflation and things of that nature. So it's

Weekly Market Update Kickoff

SPEAKER_00 1:10

really nice to get kind of a bump back from those inflation inflation numbers and the market responding favorably. Mortgage interest rates are into the mid-sixes. Um, you can get

CPI Cools And Rates Improve

SPEAKER_00 1:19

down into the lower sixes with some buy downs, um, but I wouldn't be expecting about mid-sixes right now. Um, I also wanted to do some research as we are halfway done through the year with home sales. And so I was pulling up just some information in general, comparing last year to this year from a home sales standpoint and from an inventory standpoint, and kind of just some unique changes in the market that we don't often see. But so we have seen an increase in inventory in the month of June as far as homes being listed for sale. But the interesting part is that for the homes that are listed for sale, they are actually being listed about two to two and a half percent lower than what those same homes were listed

Inventory Up And Listings Priced Lower

SPEAKER_00 1:56

at a year ago. So basically what this means, it doesn't necessarily indicate that there's going to be a market crash. It just seems to indicate that because there's being an increase of inventory of homes that are listed, sellers are being a little bit more realistic as to what they're going to list their house for sale as, you know, and lowering those listing prices, especially taking into consideration the mortgage interest rates tending to stay in the mid-six range, you know, for at least a year now. It's it's starting to, you know, really put more realistic expectations on what those home values actually are. With that being said, the actual sale price for homes in the month of June is up 1.2% than where it was last year. So a little bit of what seemingly is conflicting data, but home sales are up as far as the the price of the that the home actually was 1.2% than where it was last year. So even though it's being listed a little lower, it's either going over asking or there's just a slight increase in that demand, which has been nice. I also want to talk about just kind of a unique thing that's happening right now. Both, you know, a lot of the business that I do

Sale Prices Rise Despite Discounts

SPEAKER_00 3:01

is in the Minnesota, Arizona, and Florida markets. Um, if we were to take normal comparison of an Arizona market, Minnesota market, and Florida, and kind of they have kind of three of these drastically different markets in the idea that, you know, when the market is up, Arizona's up, and so is Florida. And when the market's down, Arizona and Florida are way down. Whereas Minnesota kind of tends to, you know, ebb and flow with those markets, but not doesn't have as much of a you know gap in between like when it's up, it's up, when it's down, it's down.

Minnesota Versus Arizona Days On Market

SPEAKER_00 3:27

Whereas Arizona and Florida do. A lot of that is has to do with the kind of just the vacation or the second home nature of Arizona and Florida, and people kind of just saying, like, you know, where if people are gonna buy second homes, it's gonna be when the market's good, you know, things of that nature. So, but what was really interesting to me is to see that in both the Minnesota market and the Arizona market, the the cost of the house is actually cheaper in Arizona most of the time than it is in Minnesota. This affects which homes are selling the fastest under a normal market strategy. But right now, as in both markets, the 400,000 or under is obviously selling the fastest, whereas this the four to six hundred thousand dollar mark is like the second fastest. And anything once you start to get over that 700,000, when homes are kind of the market with that from within Arizona in that low under that four to under range. So what I mean by that is for homes that are listed at 400 or under in Minnesota, they are only taking 25 to 35 days to sell. Whereas in Arizona, they're taking 35 to 45 days to sell. That may not seem like much of a difference, but it is kind of something that we don't normally see. In that Arizona market, those homes that are 400 or under usually sell pretty quickly. So Minnesota's really having a run right now as far as home sales go. In that $400 to $600,000 price range, Minnesota homes are selling between, um, I want to say, I gotta, I had it written down here. So I hadn't known most of it, but memorized most of it. But it's okay. So for in Minnesota, the 400 to 600 is 35 to 40 days, whereas in Arizona, that same price range is just taking up around 60 days to sell. So they are saying that some of that is because there's an increase in victory in Arizona in general, but it's really interesting to have Minnesota actually outpace the home sale number of days on market than Arizona. That's something that we don't often see. So things are looking good, things are turning around in that Minnesota market, but just an interesting little, you know, tidbit as far as how markets can change and how different, you know, aspects of you know, second homes versus primary residence versus cost of homes, things of that nature of how that can really shift a market pretty quickly.

SPEAKER_01 5:44

Yeah, no, absolutely. And you had mentioned too, we're halfway through the year. So I encourage all the agents listening to this call as well to look at revisit your goals. If you did year-long goals or even quarter goals, where you're at, and we're also about the halfway point of July. So I always say on the 15th of every month, it's really good to see where you're at for each of your monthly goals and revisit those. And if you need to make adjustments, make those. If you need to double down on some activities to get that pipeline a little bit more robust, do that

Midyear Goal Reset For Agents

SPEAKER_01 6:20

as well. But I, you know, and I don't you can speak to Arizona, Nikki, but I know a lot of people think that winter is a slow time here, and I really haven't experienced that much. I know the team that I was on once, we actually doubled down on our Legion from October to end of January. And one year we took 46 listings and I had 13 buyers the following spring. So I mean, as other agents are meeting their goals and taking a lot of time off at the end of the year for family, just done working, that's when a lot of agents you can really take advantage of that and double down and get going. So I've sold homes on Christmas Eve. So it's and I've had a handful or two of closings in January. So I just encourage you to really look at the second part of the year, look at where you're at on goals. And if you need any help with goals or if you're not on goal and you need some strategy, look me up. I'm here and happy to help in any way. Good. Well, Nikki, we appreciate you showing up even as you're on vacation and traveling. So again, thank you so much. We appreciate you. And where do we find you if anyone has any questions on today?

SPEAKER_00 7:34

You can find me on Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok at mortgages from Mn to A Z. You can call or text at 952 484 1584, or you can email me at Nikki at PevnicGroup.com.

SPEAKER_01 7:46

Perfect. All right. Thanks, Nikki. You have a great rest of your vacation, and we'll see you next week, everyone.

SPEAKER_00 7:51

All right, bye.

SPEAKER_01 7:52

Bye.