The Fed Loves Drama, But Your Pipeline Shouldn’t - 12/8/25 Market Update!

Markets wobble as December’s cut looks likely while odds of a larger January cut fall, nudging mortgage rates up briefly before easing. We break down how Fed moves filter through the mortgage rates, then shift to why first contact and practiced scripts drive client wins.

Want to level up in 2026?!?

Join the free Take More Listings daily call at 8 a.m. CST. 

Want free Minneapolis-area leads with no splits and no referral fees! Reach out for more details! 

I offer an ebook on business planning and how to set up and run a successful Real Estate Business, and there is a business planning workshop next Monday, December 15th. 

Contact: angiegerber@gmail.com for more info on any of the above offerings!

You can find Nikki on Instagram or TikTok at mortgagesfromMNtoAZ, on Facebook at Kevnik Mortgage or by name, Nikki Erickson

Chapters

• 0:00 Market Update And Fed Setup
• 1:25 Odds Of Cuts And Market Whiplash
• 2:50 What Fed Cuts Mean For Mortgages
• 3:51 Data: First Contact Wins Clients
• 6:03 Practice, Scripts, And Conversion
• 7:19 Free Calls, Leads, And Resources
• 8:55 Partnering With Lenders For Leverage

Transcript

SPEAKER_01: 1:12

All right. Welcome to the Monday market update. It is December 8th. And Nikki, what do you got for us?

SPEAKER_00: 1:19

Well, good morning, everyone. We have the big Fed meeting this week on whether or not they're going to cut interest rates again. It was really interesting because there was like a 90% certainty that the Fed was going to cut interest rates on Wednesday. And then Friday into today, they started to give some doubt to whether or not they were going to cut the interest rate. Then also not only that, but whether or not they were going to continue to cut interest rates into January. And the market responded obviously and negatively to that information. And interest rates kind of just crept up on Friday and into today. Now they've come back and they've said, yeah, there's we're definitely going to have a cut in December. It's the January cut that's going to be debated on. The January cut was expected to be a little bit more than 25 basis points. It was expected to be a little bit higher at like 50 basis points or more. And now they're kind of just being a little hawkish and saying that they're not sure quite yet. So they're now they're saying there's a 22% chance of cut in January instead of higher numbers, which was 70 to 80%. So that, like I said, sent the market into kind of a a bit of a spiral. And we got interest rates creeping up on Friday and into this morning. However, that has already settled back down and things are going back in the right direction into lowering those interest rates today. So just a really interesting start to the week as the Fed has their meeting. I feel like they just kind of like to, you know, keep us on our toes in a little bit and, you know, kind of put in place what we already know to be true, but kind of just give us some doubt or, you know, remind us that they're there and they're watching things. So hopefully things will go as predicted this week with the Fed rate cut, which will affect the 10-year treasury bond, which will in turn affect mortgage interest rates. As a reminder, right after the Fed cuts interest rates, usually mortgage interest rates will go up for the first couple of days before settling back down into taking that cut into account. So just a reminder on that, if you do see some stuff in the news or in the media saying, oh, interest rates are going back up, not really. It's just a temporary increase after a Fed cut. So that's what's going on with that. I also saw some interesting statistics coming out from ICE this week from the housing side, talking about specifically on the mortgage side, if you have a client that wants to refinance, 78% of the time they use the first or second person that they talk to with regard to whether or not they are going to refinance with that person. So basically what it means is that, you know, in my world, in my market right now, as I'm watching interest rates go down, I need to be the first person to contact my former clients and make sure that I have that opportunity to help them refinance because most of the time, oh, 78% of the time, they will use me. So I asked, I did some research and to try to figure out how does that translate to real estate agents. And if you are the first person to talk to a potential client, how does that pan out for you? So some of the stats and what the what the web is saying and what the research is saying is that about two-thirds of buyers, they interview only one agent when they are searching for a home. So if you are that first agent, two-thirds of the time they're only interviewing you, which is really interesting. Um, it also says that about 71% of buyers interviewed only one agent, and about 81% of sellers chose the first agent that they contacted. So even if people are shopping and they're interviewing different agents for either listings or buy sides, most of the time they go with the first person that they that they come into contact with. And let's see here, what else was I looking at? So just to say that it's really important that you are one of the first ones that gets in contact with that client and then follows up with them because a lot of times that's gonna, you know, help you to become the first person or the the original chosen. A lot of people, if they feel comfortable with you right out of the gate, they may interview somebody else just for due diligence to make sure that they really did like you. And then they'll come back to you as the first person that they interviewed. So it's really important, like I said, you know, any any contact is a good contact, any conversation is a good conversation because it puts you in their mind and they always tend to gravitate towards the first person that they talk to. So just a really good reminder.

SPEAKER_01: 5:24

No, that is, and it brought up a few things I jotted down that I wanted to add to that. When I was on a team, it brought up like athletics or the top of the top. It's like you don't see you see the two to three hours they play on Sundays. Let's take football, for example, but you don't see that that's like five percent, the another 90 to 95 percent is the practice. And the so if you take that and think about that with your business, like are you having these conversations? Are you practicing or you you know people call objection handlers or scripts or knowing your buyer presentation? I knew my so well when I was a buyer's agent, my sign rate at the table was over 90% because I could answer questions and I made people feel comfortable and I made it about them and words matter. Words matter so much when you're talking to someone and you're interviewing them as much as they're interviewing you. So I I love that that came up and I have resources. So if you're an agent and you're listening to this call and you want some really good conversations and resources, I have a free call that's every morning, Monday through Friday at 8 a.m. uh central standard time. And I also, if you are in the metro area, the Minneapolis area, I started a new program where I'm giving away leads with no splits and no referral fees. So either of those are interesting to you, reach out to me, angie gerber at gmail.com, and I'll uh help you out as much as I can. I also have an ebook I wrote that answers a lot of questions and just is helping many agents with business planning too, as we're going into 2026. Plus, there's a business planning workshop next Monday as well. So so much going on, and we're just here to impact agents at a really high level. And I and I love that, Nikki. And yeah, so being reaching out, and if you have a lender that you've lost touch with or is no longer, you know, in the industry, reach out to Nikki and she'll reach out on your behalf as well. It's amazing when you partner with someone like Nikki and she'll do some of the heavy lifting for you as well, meaning reaching out to clients, uh past clients, and attaching you. And it's just it's so beautiful when you don't have to be the only one. And I'll say it time and time again who you partner with in this business matters broker-wise, team, or agent-wise, and absolutely lender-wise.

SPEAKER_00: 8:02

Absolutely.

SPEAKER_01: 8:03

Yeah, well, good. Well, appreciate you in that update. I guess we'll hear next week. What happens at the meeting? I'm already looking forward to it. But in the meantime, Nikki will post that, I'm sure, far before next Monday. Where do they find you online?

SPEAKER_00: 8:19

You can find me on Instagram or TikTok at mortgages from M N to A Z. You can also find me on Facebook under Kevnik Mortgage or by personal name, Nikki Erickson.

unknown: 8:29

Perfect.

SPEAKER_01: 8:29

All right, we'll see you next week. Till then, everyone, have a good week.