
Real Estate Agent Market Update and Mindset Podcast
As a Realtor and Proctor Gallagher Certified Consultant, I specialize in helping women overcome the personal obstacles that hold them back from reaching their full potential in business. 🎯
Join us every week for a Monday Market Update Episode for Real Estate Agents and consumers who want to stay on top of what's happening in real time.
Thursday's episodes will focus on Mindset and leveling up in your Business.
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Real Estate Agent Market Update and Mindset Podcast
April 28th, Monday Market Update and Mindset Call with Nikki, Cari and Angie
The real estate market shows signs of transitioning from a seller to a buyer's market with Florida leading the way at 13% of homes currently for sale while other states remain around 6-7%. How long will it take for this to move across the country...
Interest rates continue to be volatile but are settling in the mid-to-high 6% range with potential downward pressure from economic factors.
• Florida real estate market turning with 132,000 homes for sale out of 10 million residences (13%)
• Minnesota and Arizona markets have fewer homes for sale at about 6.6-6.8% of total residences
• Economic reports show 72% of people using "buy now, pay later" loans, indicating reduced discretionary income
• Psychology of interest rates shows 5.5% is the magic number where homeowners will consider moving
• Clients who used 2-1 buydowns two years ago now face rate increases to 7.625-7.875% or more, creating refinance opportunities
• CRM systems are critical for tracking clients and opportunities - "it's not your database, it's your data bank"
• True entrepreneurs push through challenges and show up consistently regardless of circumstances
Reach out to your past clients, especially those who used 2-1 buydowns. Even if it's been years since your last contact, reconnect with a personal touch - they'll appreciate hearing from you!
Nothing Changes if Nothing Changes - Awaken your Awareness today!!
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Without further ado, Nikki, I will let you take it away for the Monday market update.
Speaker 2:Awesome. Well, good morning everyone. Thanks so much for joining us. Just wanted to talk through kind of what's been happening this last week from an interest rate standpoint and then talk about just some statistics in the real estate market on where we're seeing certain markets turning in different areas of the country. So, first and foremost, rates last week were extremely volatile up, down, up, down, up down just like they have been the last couple weeks. The good news is is that towards the end of last week and now into today, we're starting to see those rates kind of settle back down into that mid to high six range again that we've been kind of contemplating over the last couple months, you know, really kind of settling in there. We are going to see that they are going to continue to do that. This week We've got a lot of new information that's coming out, or a lot of monthly reports that come out this week, including the amount of mortgage apps, unemployment rates, job creations, all these different reports that are going to start to affect the market as they always do in each month, and so we're expecting to see a little bit of inflation going down just a little bit again this month and being closer to where the Fed wants it to be in order to start lowering those rates. From a Fed standpoint, that would be really nice. There is a lot of pressure on the Fed right now to start to lower interest rates, to get ahead of where they want that inflation number to be, to continue to do that in order to kind of avoid that recession that people seem to think is impending as it's coming down. So it'll be interesting to see kind of what they decide to do.
Speaker 2:In relation to tariffs. What the experts are telling us is that, from a just economic standpoint, we're going to start to see the effects of tariffs for products that are normally imported from China. We're going to start to see the effects of that around Mother's Day, you know, on our shelves with jobs, with things of that nature, and so that's going to start to affect the market as well, from a bond market standpoint and from people pulling out of that stock market because of the volatility and starting to invest in the bond market because those are considered safer. And when that happens, what that does is it pushes those interest rates for the bonds lower, and which should, in that case, lower mortgage interest rates, at least in theory. This is the prediction that's going to happen. So a lot of interesting things coming down the line and we'll see, kind of, how it works out. There's a little bit of this at the same time. Last year, not from a tariff perspective, but just from people thinking that the consumers were going to pull out of stocks and invest more in bonds, and from a global economic standpoint as well that didn't really happen, but we have seen, like I said, downward pressure on those rates and it'll be interesting to see what the Fed does over the next couple of weeks With that being said.
Speaker 2:So the hot ticket item right now is the Florida real estate market. So I've said this in the past and it rings true kind of throughout the history of real estate and what we can expect on predicting what happens from either Florida or Arizona to help that predict what's going to happen across the rest of the nation, because those two markets, because they are extremely transient, they definitely set the tone for markets moving forward across the nation. Now, we all know that every market is different, but just to give you some sort of perspective on what Florida is doing right now right now there's 131, 132,000 homes that are listed for sale in Florida out of a total possible 10 million residences. So if you think about that, that's 13% of the homes in Florida are for sale right now. So it's starting to turn over into a buyer's market. We're seeing decreases in listing prices and things of that nature and those prices are starting to come down because there's an oversupply and not as much demand. And I'll talk about that demand in a minute and why that's there. But if you compare that to Minnesota because I know we have a lot of people in Minnesota that listen to this call in Minnesota right now there's 14,000 listings, just above 14,000 listings out of 2 million residences. So we're talking 6.6% of homes in Minnesota are for sale. I think I might've said Minneapolis, I meant Minnesota the whole time and if you compare that to Arizona, right now Arizona has 17,000 homes for sale out of 2.5 million possible residences. So that's about 6.8%. So we haven't seen that increase in listings hitting Arizona right now. That may be due to weather, because a lot of times Arizona has a very opposite market. Whereas not a lot of homes sell during the summer months because it's so hot, it's likened to the Minnesota winter months where not a lot sells because, again, it's too cold. But we should start seeing listings in Arizona start to pick up and start to follow that Florida market.
Speaker 2:Getting back to the demand in Florida, so a lot of it has to do with people wanting to sell their homes and most of it is. If you think about the market in Florida, a lot of it is second homes for people and a lot of that discretionary income has gone away. There's actually a report that just came out that I was reading about where it talks about tracking spending from people who do the buy now, pay later loans. So in other words, like let's say, you needed to go buy furniture for your house and you can go on to Wayfair and you can say, okay, I want this furniture and then I'm going to put it on this installment payment plan where I'm going to get the furniture but I'm going to do it and install, pay it back on weekly installments of $50 or whatever that is. Those are called buy now, pay later. They don't report to credit. What this report is telling us is that 72% of people have been using the buy now, pay later loans to acquire goods in the United States alone and of those 72% of people, 48% of those are saying, yeah, I'm going to need to use them again in the next six months, and so really and there's a lot more information in this report, but what it speaks to overall is the lack of discretionary income that people are feeling right now and that's been going on for quite some time.
Speaker 2:We've talked about discretionary income and discretionary spending for months, now that I've mentioned it nine months ago, 12 months ago and now we're really starting to see the effect of that when it comes to housing and people saying, okay, if I have to carry all this spending and I'm a little bit leery of what the market's doing, and I'm a little bit leery of what the market's doing and I'm a little bit leery of where my stock portfolio is, and things of that nature what it's going to trigger them to do is sell off an asset, ie their second home is going to be the first one to go, because they're not going to want to carry that payment for much longer, and so that is definitely contributing to what's happening in Florida, but it's also, you know, obviously, all these other things.
Speaker 2:You know there's a lot of Canadian people that purchase in Florida.
Speaker 2:There's a lot of insurance issues, a lot of HOA issues, all those things that I've talked about before.
Speaker 2:This is just another aspect that's now catching up to the Florida market as well. So you're going to start to see that trickle down into other markets across the United States as well, where people are not feeling comfortable with their discretionary spending and they're going to get a little fearful and try to sell off an asset. So I feel like what we're doing is we're coming into this market where we're flipping from a seller's market you know, back during those COVID times where it was like everybody was competing to more of a buyer's market where everyone's saying, okay, I'm willing to sell. So it's just it'll be really interesting to track it over the next you know, three to six months, especially seeing what happens with this economy that we really just don't have any history or prediction to deal with, and it'll be interesting to see kind of how that affects the real estate market. So just some good information for you guys saying, okay, we're picking up in home listings, but homes are going to be starting to sit a little bit longer as we get into more of a buyer's market.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I know you said that again it kind of trends based on the Florida and Arizona market upwards across the country. I know you don't have a crystal ball, but in the past, how long do you think is that months? Is that years? What is your instinct on how long it takes for that to kind of spread throughout the country? No-transcript year will be pretty low and that's going to take a lot of the people that have been waiting.
Speaker 1:You know, because right now there are so many people that have been sitting on their you know, 2.85 or 3.5% interest rate loans, but over the past three to four or five years they've had babies. Things have changed, you know they want to move and yet they just can't or won't let go of that rate. Whereas, what would you say, just based on your 25 plus years in the industry, like is it? If we get down to like five and a half, will they more likely let go of that one to two percent, whereas right now, if it's like four percent, that's just too much to fathom. Is there any again, just going off of what you know or have experienced, what would your take be on?
Speaker 2:that, historically speaking there's a ton of evidence out there for this that has talked about it over years and years and years and psychologically, what buyers feel comfortable at and what sellers feel comfortable selling and then buying it, and no matter what the interest rate is what they will give up in order to move. And that interest rate is exactly what you said. The magic number seems to be five and a half. That people say, okay, that's reasonable for an interest rate on a mortgage and it doesn't feel high. And the difference between a three and a half to five and a half percent on $400,000 is tolerable, you know, or something you know. That seems to be really the psychological point where people say five and a half is really where I need to be at Now, mind you, we've got a whole group of people, you know we've been on this call for almost two years now.
Speaker 2:Very beginning of this call, we were talking about the advantages of a two-one buy-down.
Speaker 2:Of this call, we were talking about the advantages of a 2-1 buy-down. So if you think about that, and how many people went into 2-1 buy-downs from a mortgage perspective almost two years ago, those people are now going to see their interest rate go up to 7.625, 7.875. And so really talking to those people and saying, okay, this is definitely the position that you're in. We need to get you reset here. So if you do have clients that were in a 2-1 buy down or have ever been in a 2-1 buy down that you're aware of, it's a good conversation to have with them right now. Because, as those things are starting to reset, we're seeing mortgage interest rates come down. You know we can catch it at the right time to put them into that. You know that more. That lower fixed rate which was, you know, always the goal at the beginning was to say, okay, we're going to take a lower rate for now and then, hopefully, within the two years, the interest rates will come down to the point where we can just refinance and keep that lower rate.
Speaker 1:So those are people too that are going to be in the market. Great point. I almost forgot. It's just so fast and everything's moving at lightning speed that that is a great takeaway. I mean, I want that to be the takeaway for agents. Um, that was a big thing and that was the thing that we were. We were going to and looking at and having these numbers available, uh, to get people into homes. And what was the saying? Some people hated it was um, date the rate, marry the home, yeah. So if you had buyers, you said that to her, did that?
Speaker 2:Yeah, we've been dating rates for two years now, so it's time to put money on it, let's go.
Speaker 1:Yeah, no, I love that and I think that's kind of going to be my takeaway on the mindset side of it is really take that time and, first and foremost, I've only ever met one agent in my tenure career and many of that coaching agents, both new and 20 plus years in the business that have their CRM in place and really working at a high level. I call it a data bank. It's not your database, it's your data bank. If you don't have that working, you are stepping over $100 bills to pick up pennies. So, in saying that, first and foremost, I'm going to put a pin in that over there, get your CRM, get it running, get it working, get it automated yes, and then be feeding it every week. You should be feeding it and so, anyways, with that said, sit down and go through the past clients or people that you've talked to, or these conversations you've had regarding the two one buy down, or people that have been on the fence and just show up and educate, show up and call A lot of agents, also with regards to not having their CRM in place. They also I don't want to be salesy or I don't want to, you know come off this way or that way. Well, bottom line is you are in sales and you need to fall in love with sales, and you need to do it in a way that is in alignment with you, and that's how I always coach agents. So find out how you want to contact people. What do you want to say agents? So find out how you want to contact people. What do you want to say? It's just about having conversations, connecting with them, educating them.
Speaker 1:And this came up recently. I don't remember where it was, what call it was on, but someone's just like yeah, but if it's been a year or if it's been, you know, three years or five years, they're not sitting around, they're not waiting next to the phone. When is Angie going to call me? It's been two years, five months, three days and two hours. They don't even. They're not even tracking it.
Speaker 1:So what I said to this person oh, it was in a mastermind that I went to I said it's just about reconnecting and just find something. Stalk them on Facebook, find something that's happening in their life that you can reach out and congratulate them on or ask about, or what I've done. That's really funny is, especially if it was a buyer or something happened with this past client. Oh my gosh, I just drove by that pink house. Do you remember that? I thought of you and I just had to call and say hi.
Speaker 1:So just come about it as a person, as another human being that's just reaching out and you were thinking about them and, like I said, I don't care if it's been one week or 10 plus years. I've been reaching out to people from high school that I haven't talked to since high school and I'm about to have my 30 year high school reunion. Do you think they're just like why are you calling me? No, they're like oh my gosh, it's so great to hear from you and that's how your past clients will be. Even if it's been 10 plus years, it can't hurt. And if they tell you to buzz off, then you know that and they're probably not your or you anymore.
Speaker 2:Exactly, you know we should talk about doing a CRM call as well, or CRM like info call, just because, like, like you said, it is a data bank and you got to start somewhere and it's, you know, without your database dialed in and things like that, like you said, you're giving up. You know business and you know it's, it's. It's definitely a discipline and something that you have to learn and you just got to start it somewhere, you know it's just starting.
Speaker 1:When's the best time to start today?
Speaker 1:just like when's the best time to buy a house today, just get started even if it's 15 minutes a day or if you're just getting two to three people in a day. That's two to three people If you. If you multiply that, anyone can find a half hour in a day. If someone's too busy to get their business in order, then they're focusing on the wrong thing or they need to figure out leverage and all of that stuff. And that's why it's good to have a coach or a mentor that can peel those blinders back, get you the leverage, get you the time and figure this out. Because, as I said, I just actually on my podcast that this is on as well.
Speaker 1:I read my chapter one of my from hustle to harmony, and it's are you an entrepreneur or an amateur? Because the difference is. An amateur shows up and lets every excuse stop them from doing what it is they know they should be doing to move their business forward and like oh, I didn't get a good night's sleep, or my kids sick, or you know, I'm fighting with my spouse or whatever it is. You're just not in the right energy. And an entrepreneur, a true entrepreneur, shows up in regardless of what's going on and how they feel. They detach from that and they do it anyways. They do it sad, they do it pissed off, they do it hungry, they do it sleep deprived, but they do it because they know that they're a business owner.
Speaker 1:You own a business and to have that move forward it's part of the process Knowing, yes, there will be days that it doesn't go exactly how you'd like it to do it, you don't show up as you should, and what I say is you cut those, you let it go. You can't change it. You can't even change what time you got up this morning. So focus on here and now and what you can do. And to your point, nikki, it's just starting.
Speaker 2:It is, and you know you'd be surprised at. You know, my biggest thing is I'm constantly asking myself in from a CRM standpoint, what can be automated and what. What needs to be more manual, what needs to be more personal, what needs to be more? And the answer that I always come to is anything really related to somebody's house or loan or what their email, marketing, things like that. Those can all be automated. It's the personal touches that you have to be done manually. It's the personal happy birthday. It's the cause. If you send them a happy birthday email, it's certainly not as effective as reaching out via texts or reaching out even phone call and saying, hey, happy birthday, what are you doing today? You know so there's definitely some just some things that you can do that are super small and a lot of it can be automated, surprisingly and still be effective.
Speaker 1:Absolutely. Or even if you, you can do voice text, yeah, and you can actually sing it to them through their text. So it's different. It's just there's little things that you can do that won't take much more time, right, some of them can very well be automated. That also sets you apart and just it's like oh wow, that was special, because everyone wants to feel special, be heard and seen yeah, absolutely love it.
Speaker 1:Well good, well perfect. I appreciate you, as always, nikki, and until next week. If you all need anything, find Nikki online. She's on every social media platform. She's posting every day. She's offered us to stitch, duet, rip off and repeat any of her content. So if you don't know what to do or what to post or where to come from or how to get this information, follow Nikki. And, of course, if you're looking for a great coach or mentor and someone to help you move your business forward, I'm here to help as well. I have open office hours that anyone can drop in, so feel free to reach out to me.
Speaker 2:All right, make it a good one.
Speaker 1:You guys too, bye, bye.